:Issued: 2004 Dec 09 1246 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41209
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Dec 2004, 1238UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 09 Dec 2004 until 11 Dec 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 080 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 080 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 080 / AP: 019
COMMENT: A long duration C2.5 flare took place on Dec 08, peaking at 19:59UT
originating from sunspot group 80 (NOAA 0709) near the central meridian. A type
II/1 outburst was measured. A first part of a prominence located at the neutral
line of the sunspot group erupted and was accompanied with a large EIT dimming.
LASCO showed evidence for at least a partial halo CME. We can expect the arrival
at earth for late on Dec 11. The solar wind originating from a small coronal
hole can possibly reach earth on Dec 10. The coronal hole and the arrival of the
CME of Dec 8 can be responsible for periods of active conditions.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 8 Dec 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 081
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 019
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 014
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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