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[Propagation] Fw: [Prelimsolar] PRELIMINARY Daily Solar GeophysicalActiv

To: "a Propagation Reflector" <propagation@contesting.com>
Subject: [Propagation] Fw: [Prelimsolar] PRELIMINARY Daily Solar GeophysicalActivity Report for 26 April
From: "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>
Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 19:37:32 -0400
List-post: <mailto:propagation@contesting.com>
>         /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
>           PRELIMINARY DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
>
>                                 26 APRIL, 2005
>
>         /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
>                         (Based in-part on SEC Data.)
>                (The final report will be released tommorrow.)
>
>
> PRELIMINARY SOLAR & GEOPHYSICAL INDICES FOR 26 APRIL, 2005
> ----------------------------------------------------------
>
>      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.
>          Predicted Solar Flux for Next 3 Days: 90, 90, 90.
>                     Average 90-day Solar Flux:  90.
>               Current Middle Latitude A-Index:   4
>                     Current Boulder K-Indices: 1101 212*
>                   Current Planetary K-Indices: 1011 222*
>                Boulder A-Index 3-Day Forecast:   5,   5,  12.
>              Planetary A-Index 3-Day Forecast:   8,   5,  12.
>
>
> SYNOPSIS OF TODAYS ACTIVITY
> ---------------------------
>
>             Solar activity increased to low levels today.  Region
>       756 (S06E55) appears to be a magnetically complex beta-delta sunspot
>       group.  There were several C-class flares produced from this region
>       during the period, the largest was an impulsive C5 x-ray event that
>       occurred at 26/0441Z.  A disappearing filament was observed starting
>       late yesterday and continued into the early part of the interval.
>       This event resulted in a partial halo cme which was first observed
>       in soho/lasco C2 imagery beginning at 24/2306Z.  There is a chance
>       this cme may become geoeffective and produce a weak glancing blow as
>       it passes the earth.  No new regions were numbered today.
>
>            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be at
>       low levels.  There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare
>       from region 756.
>
>            The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
>
>            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
>       expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.  The
>       partial halo cme seen today on the southwest limb may result in
>       isolated periods of active conditions on 29 april.
>
>            Event probabilities 27 apr-29 apr
>
>                             Class M    20/20/20
>                             Class X    01/01/01
>                             Proton     01/01/01
>                             PCAF       green
>
>            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 27 apr-29 apr
>
>                        A.  Middle Latitudes
>                        Active                15/15/25
>                        Minor storm           01/01/10
>                        Major-severe storm    01/01/05
>
>                        B.  High Latitudes
>                        Active                20/15/25
>                        Minor storm           05/01/10
>                        Major-severe storm    01/01/05
>
>
> **  End of Daily Report  **
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