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A point of clarification:
While these three sunspots "are cycle 23 spots based on their
polarities", never-the-less, my bulletin does not state that these
sunspots are actually cycle 24 spots. Rather, I am pointing to the
new level of activity as a possible "waking up" of the sun after a
long period of quiet. And, that this could signal the gradual
increase of solar activity expected of a newly starting cycle.
Experts are not yet totally agreeing on the statistical end of cycle
23 - but are speculating that February 2008 was the statistical end.
Whether or not these sunspots are oriented correctly to belong to a
new cycle is not, in my opinion, as "important" to a radio operator as
is the actual 10.7-cm flux levels, and the occurrence of space weather
(flares, sunspots, and so forth). No one knows, yet, the certain end
and start points. We'll know when we can look back at the data.
On Tue, Mar 25, 2008 at 10:57 PM, Tomas Hood (NW7US) <nw7us@hfradio.org> wrote:
> Bulletin from Tomas Hood, NW7US:
>
> "The Sun awakens in the early dawn of Sunspot Cycle 24"
>
> During the week of March 24, the Sun became quite active. This, after
> many months of long stretches of quiet, sunspot-less days. March 25
> images of the sun revealed a train of sunspots, NOAA AR 0987 (a beta
> configuration), 0988 (a beta configuration), and 0989 (an alpha
> configuration). For many months prior, there would be an occasional
> sunspot, if any at all. These three sunspots indicate a sun that is
> waking up; there was even a strong M1-class solar flare on March 25,
> the first such strong flare in a long period of quiet (the last such
> flare was mid-2007).
>
> The M1.7 magnitude flare originated in sunspot 0989, which was on the
> very edge of the sun, not facing us. As this sunspot group rotates
> into what is known as "geo-effective" position, it may well cause
> intense radio blackouts and storms, while also strengthening the
> ionosphere, in turn creating great DX opportunities on higher HF
> frequencies during non-radio blackout periods. Radio blackouts occur
> during solar flares.
>
> On the same day, March 25, the solar flux (10.7-cm flux index) rose
> from the low 70's to the high of 89 (as of the time this is being
> written), and the flare caused minor storming and a radio blackout on
> HF. This is a great trend for those interested in using the high
> frequencies for radio communications. As we now move away from
> sunspot cycle minimum to the peak of cycle 24, sometime in the next
> three to five years, activity will increase. With this increase in
> activity will come better HF propagation on the higher portions of HF,
> while also bringing an increase in radio blackouts and geomagnetic
> storminess that is part of an active cycle.
>
> We're in for the exciting start of a new solar cycle! Some
> forecasters speculate that this solar cycle will not be too active. I
> still hold to one early forecast that speculates that the cycle may be
> a very active and exciting one. Time will tell!
>
> (c) Tomas Hood, NW7US
> Contributing editor:
> CQ Magazine, CQ VHF, Popular Communications
>
--
Tomas David Hood
Amateur Radio Operator, NW7US
Contributing editor:
CQ Magazine, CQ VHF, Popular Communications
http://hfradio.org / http://nw7us.spaces.live.com/
Sapphire Website and Computer Services
PO Box 9, Stevensville, Montana 59870
Voice: 406-777-2462 / Cell: 406-214-9024
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