[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. During the period, a C2/Sf flare was observed at 10/1927 UTC from Region 2320 (S13W43, Dac/beta-gamma). Consolidation was evident in the intermediate portion of the region. The region also lost its delta magnetic configuration but exhibited mixed polarities within the trailer portion. Other activity included a C4 x-ray event at 11/0241 UTC from new Region 2321 (N12E73, Dao/beta). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed from available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class flare and a slight chance for an X-class flare over the next three days (11-13 April) due to an increase in flare activity from Region 2320 and new Region 2321 just rotating onto the NE limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (11-13 Apr) with a chance to reach high levels on 12-13 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind, measured at the ACE satellite, remained enhanced under the influence of the 06 Apr CME, though parameters were indicating diminishing effects. Total field began the period at 19 nT, but declined to 7 nT by periods end. The Bz component was at +16 nT early, but switched southward at 10/1312 UTC to -11 nT and remained steady southward between -3 nT to -11 nT. Solar wind speed slowly declined from near 420 km/s to about 350 km/s by the end of the period. Phi angle was in a mostly positive (away) orientation through a majority of the period before transitioning to a negative (towards) sector at 11/0744 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly return to nominal levels by late on day one (11 Apr) as CME effects diminish. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected on days two and three (12-13 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of day one (11 Apr) through day two (12 Apr) as CME effects diminish. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected by day three (13 Apr).

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