[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 12 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity increased to moderate (R1-minor) levels. At 12/0950 UTC, Region 2321 (N13E60, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare with an associated 160 sfu Tenflare. The region also produced a few weak to moderate C-class flares during the period. Region 2321 is a moderately sized region with some mixed magnetic polarity apparent, however an accurate determination remains difficult due to its proximity to the NE limb.

Region 2320 (S14W58, Dao/beta-gamma) produced a C3 x-ray event at 12/0029 UTC. The region showed slow decay as it approached the SW limb. Regions 2322 (N14E32, Dro/beta) and 2323 (S16W42, Dro/beta) both exhibited some growth during the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or greater) over the next three days (12-14 April). The most likely region to produce significant flare activity is Region 2321.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (12-14 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind, measured at the ACE satellite, returned to nominal levels. Solar wind speed slowly decayed from a high of 408 km/s at 11/1450 UTC to near 340 km/s by periods end. Total field declined from near 7 nT to 4 nT. The Bz component was mostly southward to -6 nT through 11/1813 UTC when it became variable between -2 nT to +4 nT for the remainder of the period. Phi angle was highly variable between positive (away) and negative (towards) sectors.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels for the forecast period (12-14 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of day one (12 Apr). Mostly quiet conditions are expected by days two and three (13-14 Apr).

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