[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity decayed to low levels with all four spotted regions contributing C-class flares during the period.

Region 2320 (S14W72, Dao/beta) produced a C6/1f flare at 12/2329 UTC. Associated with this event was a Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 1350 km/s. A subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME) off the west limb was first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 12/2348 UTC. Analysis and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output suggests this CME was traveling well off the Earth-Sun line and is not expected to be geoeffective.

Both Regions 2322 (N14E18, Dao/beta) and 2323 (S16W56, Bxo/beta) produced a few weak C-class flares. The largest spot group on the disk, Region 2321 (N14E46, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta), produced the largest event of the period; a C9 flare at 12/1807 UTC. The region also produced additional weak C-class activity.

All four regions were either stable or in slight decay. New flux was apparent on the east limb near N20. No additional CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or greater) over the next three days (13-15 Apr). The most likely region to produce significant flare activity is Region 2321.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (13-15 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued under nominal solar wind conditions. Solar wind speed averaged in the 350 km/s ranges. Total field ranged from 2 to 7 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was in a predominately negative (towards) orientation through 13/0822 UTC when a switch to a positive (away) sector was observed.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels for the forecast period (13-15 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the forecast period (13-15 Apr).

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