[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 14 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels during the period. Region 2321 (N13E33, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) remained the largest spot group on the disk, but was largely inactive. Region 2320 (S14W85, Dao/beta) was the most active region on the visible disk, yet only managed to produce a couple of low level C-class flares. Two new spot groups were seen rotating on to the north east limb, but accurate analysis of the magnetic complexity was hindered due to foreshortening. An asymmetric full halo CME was first observed on C2 14/0236 UTC and is associated with activity on the backside of the sun. No Earth directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or greater) over the next three days (14-16 Apr). The most likely region to produce significant flare activity is Region 2321. Two unnumbered regions are rotating on the east limb however accurate magnetic analysis is hindered due to foreshortening.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (14-16 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters at the ACE spacecraft remained nominal. Solar wind speed averaged in the 340 km/s ranges. Total field ranged from 2 to 8 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-5 nT, remaining mostly northward. Phi angle transitioned to a negative (towards) orientation early in the period. A weak enhancement was seen across Bt, velocity, density, and temperature after 14/0500UTC. Particle flux measurements provided by ACE/EPAM suggested the approach of a feature, lining up with a possible transient from a 09 Apr eruption and an approaching southern pole connected negative polarity coronal hole.

Forecast: A slightly enhanced solar wind environment at ACE is anticipated for days one and two (14-15 Apr) with a chance for a weak transient passage based on current EPAM data within the next 24 hours. Day three (16 Apr) is expected to see disturbances in wind speed and field conditions due to effects of the recurrent southern pole connected coronal high speed stream (CH HSS). Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the first two days (14-15 Apr), with unsettled to active levels possible, in the event a transient from 09 Apr passes on day one (14 Apr). G1 (Minor Storm) conditions are likely on day three (16 Apr) due to effects from the southern pole connected negative coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.

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