[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 11 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low this period. Region 2339 (N13W00, Fkc/beta-gamma) produced numerous weak C-class flares, the largest were several C2/Sf flares at 10/1303 UTC, 10/1711 UTC and at 10/2155 UTC. Region 2339 had minor decay within its intermediate spots and slight growth in its trailing spots and maintained its beta-gamma magnetic classification. The region persists as the largest and most productive region on the disk. New Regions 2343 (N10E31, Cro/beta), 2344 (S10E63, Cso/beta), and 2345 (N12E01, Cro/beta) were numbered this period. Region 2343 underwent minor growth in spot coverage. Regions 2344 and 2345 were otherwise unremarkable. The remaining regions on the visible disk showed no significant change and were mainly stable or in decay.

The most significant activity during the period was a filament eruption from the NE quadrant and an associated C2 Hyder flare. The 11 degree long filament, centered at approximately N41E17 along the polarity boundary between regions 2342 and 2343, erupted at 11/0341 UTC as observed in SDO/AIA and GONG/H-alpha imagery. Initial analysis of SDO/AIA 304 and 193 imagery showed a distinct eruption of material from the Sun as a result of this activity. Further analysis awaits updated SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery to determine if a CME resulted. Pending further analysis of the aforementioned event, no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (11-13 May) with Region 2339 being the most likely source.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at normal levels over the next three days (11-13 May) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters weakened during the period as speed decreased from 423 km/s at the beginning of the period to 342 km/s at 11/0435 UTC. Solar wind speed began a slow climb afterwards, but remained at ambient levels between 360-400 km/s. Total field increased from approximately 6 nT to 14 nT early in the period, than slowly decreased afterwards settling at about 4-6 nT by 11/0430 UTC. The Bz component was negative most of the period with a peak southward deflection of about -10 nT. Phi angle was generally in a positive (away) solar sector orientation with a brief transition to a negative (toward) sector from approximately 11/0100 UTC to 11/0330 UTC before turning back positive. Phi angle varied between between sectors afterwards.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced beginning late on day one through day three (11-13 May) due to the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the influence of negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with active periods between 11/0000-0600 UTC attributed to an extended period of southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 May) due to the onset of a CIR. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on days two and three (12-13 May) as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position.

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