[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 12 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. A long duration C2 from S14W90 at 12/0302 UTC was accompanied by an eruption visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 12/0248 UTC, and probably responsible for a proton enhancement described below. Region 2339 (N16W13, Fkc/beta-gamma) remained the largest of the 10 spotted regions on the visible disk and was responsible for most of the remaining C-class activity. There was no significant development of any of the regions. The location of the CME described above makes a geoeffective event unlikely, but analysis continues.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (12-14 May) with Region 2339 being the most likely source.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began at background levels but rose after the C2 flare at 12/0302 UTC mentioned above. Flux at GOES reached a peak of 6 pfu at 12/0720. Upstream at the ACE spacecraft, a maximum of 8 pfu was recorded by the SIS instrument at 12/0855 UTC. The uptick in proton flux prompted a warning at 12/0627 UTC which was later canceled.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to persist at normal levels over the next three days (12-14 May). There is a chance the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit will exceed the 10 pfu threshold (S1 - Minor) on 12 May. The remainder of the forecast period is expected to see a gradual return to normal levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft declined from the beginning through the middle of the period, where it remained near 340 km/s until about 12/0530 UTC. Then, it began to rise again in conjunction with the temperature. A distinct but modest (7 nT) jump in Bt, and decrease in Bz, at 12/0112 UTC prompted a sudden impulse warning at 12/0125 UTC. Phi was generally negative before this event, and variable afterwards. Bt was at or below 10 nT until 12/0600 UTC when Bt rose to 10 nT and continued to increase, reaching 15 nT at 12/0639 UTC. Bz remained above -10 nT through the

Forecast: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft is expected to become enhanced beginning on day one through day three (12-14 May) due to the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor (G1-Minor) conditions on day one (12 May) with the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. Unsettled to minor (G1-Minor) conditions are expected to continue through day two (13 May) as the high speed stream persists. On day three (14 May), the high speed stream is expected to begin to taper off bringing geomagnetic conditions below minor (G1-Minor) thresholds.

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