[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2342 (N18E15, Cai/beta-gamma) was the only region to grow appreciably during the period. This growth was accompanied by the production of the largest flares in the past 24 hours, C3/Sf events at 13/0415 UTC and 13/0559 UTC. Region 2339 (N14W26, Fkc/beta-gamma) produced the only other activity of the period, C1/Sf flares at 13/0255 and 13/0351 UTC. Some flux emergence was noted in the northern portions of Region 2339. The other numbered regions were stable. New regions appeared near N12E64 and S09E85 and will be numbered if they persist. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (13-15 May) with Region 2339 being the most likely source.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit returned to background levels after yesterdays enhancement.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to persist at normal levels over the next three days (13-15 May). The 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) thresholds.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft suggested the arrival and onset of the high speed solar wind stream associated with a negative polarity coronal hole. By 12/1700 UTC the winds began a steady rise in velocity to above 500 km/s, eventually reaching 700 km/s by 13/0952 UTC. Bt rose to 18 nT by 13/0200 UTC. Bz reached a minimum near -16 nT at 12/2340 UTC. Phi was generally negative.

Forecast: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft is expected to continue to be enhanced by the CH HSS over the next three days. Wind speed is expected to continue to increase until early on day one (13 May) and slowly decline through day three (15 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm (G2-moderate) levels in response to the high speed stream described above. Minor storm (G1-minor) levels were first observed at 13/0144 UTC. Major storm (G2-moderate) levels were reached at 13/0553 UTC.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled to active levels with minor (G1-Minor) periods possible for the remainder of day one (13 May). On day two through three (14 - 15 May), the high speed stream is expected to taper off, bringing geomagnetic conditions below minor (G1-Minor) thresholds.

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