[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period, a C1/Sf flare occurred at 20/0812 UTC from newly numbered Region 2351 (N22E47, Bxo/beta). The remaining spotted regions were stable or decayed further. A filament eruption occurred in the Southeast near 19/2030 UTC. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected on LASCO coronagraph imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity over the next three days (20-22 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal background levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to see an increase from normal background to moderate levels for day one (20 May). Days two and three (21-22 May) are expected to see a return to high levels as the effects of the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) wane. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) threshold for the forecast period (20-22 May).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters at the ACE satellite suggested the continued presence of a positive polarity coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS). Bt started the period near 9 nT and decreased to near 6 nT. Bz fluctuated between positive and negative over the period, with maximum deflections to -5 nT. Solar wind velocity was steady throughout the period and measured an average speed near 500 km/s. Phi remained positive.

Forecast: Solar wind velocity is expected to continue at elevated values through day one (20 May) in response to the CH HSS. Day two (21 May) should see CH HSS effects wane. A return to background conditions is forecast for day three (22 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions on days one and two (20-21 May) as CH HSS effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions are forecast for day three (22 May).

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