[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period, a C1/Sf flare occurred at 21/0706 UTC from Region 2349 (S21W10, Bxo/beta). The remaining spotted regions were stable or decayed further. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected on LASCO coronagraph imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity over the next three days (21-23 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at ambient background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels for day one (21 May). Days two and three (22-23 May) are expected to see a return to high levels as the waning coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) moves off completely. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) threshold for the forecast period (21-23 May).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters at the ACE satellite suggested the continued waning of a positive polarity (CH HSS). Bt remained steady near 6 nT. Bz fluctuated between positive and negative over the period, with maximum deflections to -2 nT. Solar wind velocity displayed a steady average decrease from near 480 km/s to 400 km/s. Phi remained positive.

Forecast: Solar wind velocity is expected to be at nominal background conditions for days one through three (21-23 May) as the CH HSS rotates completely away from the near Earth environment.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reflect quiet conditions through the forecast period (21-23 May) as CH HSS effects have dissipated.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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