[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels during the period. Region 2349 (S21W30, Cro/beta) grew further as it gained rudimentary penumbra within the trailer spots. The region also produced the largest flare of the period, a C2/Sf flare at 22/2351 UTC. Region 2353 (N07W12, Dai/beta-gamma) also matured further. The region developed penumbra throughout the spot group and retained its beta-gamma magnetic classification due to polarity mixing within its intermediate spots. Region 2353 produced two impulsive C1 flares during the period. All other regions were stable or in decay.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed during the period in available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity over the next three days (23-25 May) primarily due to the increasing development and complexity of Regions 2353 and 2349.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at ambient background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (23-25 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) threshold for the forecast period (23-25 May).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters at the ACE satellite indicated ambient conditions. Solar wind speed was generally steady and ranged mainly from 325 km/s to 380 km/s with a brief peak speed of about 396 km/s at 22/1325 UTC. Total magnetic field strength was primarily steady and ranged mostly between 1-7 nT. The Bz component was primarily in a northward orientation through most of the period before it reorientated mainly southward at about 23/0330 UTC. Maximum negative deviation was -5 nT near 23/0500 UTC. The phi angle remained in a positive (away from Earth) configuration throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to remain nominal for the next three days (23-25 May). On day three a minor enhancement in speed is possible due to a small coronal hole that decayed as it transited across the central portion of the solar disk.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet through days one and two (23-24 May). On day three (25 May) unsettled conditions are possible due to a weak disturbance resulting from a brief connection to a small negative polarity coronal hole that decayed as it transited across the central portion of the solar disk.

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