[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low this period. Region 2353 (N07W27, Dao/beta) produced a C2/Sf flare at 23/1739 UTC. The region underwent penumbral growth early in the period, but later exhibited signs of weakening in both organization and magnetic field structure as the trailer spots decayed slightly and overall magnetic complexity lessened. Region 2349 (S21W43, Dao/beta) underwent slight growth in penumbral coverage but remained relatively simple in magnetic field complexity and was generally unproductive. New Region 2355 (S10E48, Cao/beta) emerged this period, grew slowly but remained quiet. The remaining regions on the disc were either stable or in decay.

At about 24/0745 UTC a surge of material was noted from just beyond the SE limb as noted in SDO/AIA imagery. Initial analysis indicates some of the ejecta may have escaped into space, but it did not appear to be on a Sun-Earth line. We await SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery to determine if a coronal mass ejection (CME) was associated with this event. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (24-26 May), primarily from Regions 2349 and 2353.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (24-26 May) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters measured at the ACE satellite indicated ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds were fairly steady at an average speed of about 335 km/s and ranged primarily between 325-350 km/s. Total magnetic field strength was relatively steady at about 4 nT for most of the period, but had a few small deviations that ranged between 1-6 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between north and south orientations, and reached a maximum negative deflection near -4 nT about mid-period. The phi angle was stable in a positive (away from the Sun) configuration until 23/1830 UTC when it transitioned into a negative (toward the Sun) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient levels over the next three days (24-26 May) under a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field remained quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at quiet levels over the next three days (24-26 May) as Earth is likely to remain under the influence of an ambient solar wind environment.

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