[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2360 (N15W36 Eai/beta-gamma) produced a C6/1F flare at 10/0226 UTC, the largest of the period. The regions intermediate and trailer spots underwent minor decay over the past 24 hours. Region 2366 (N27E12 Cro/beta) saw overall growth during the period. All other regions remained stable or in decay.

Beginning at 1900 UTC, a small filament structure (approximately five degrees) began lifting off the visible disk as part of Region 2364 (S07E18 Axx/alpha). This resulted in a C2/1f flare at 09/2006 UTC. Region seen in SDO/AIA 193 at 09/2024 UTC. Current coronagraph imagery shows an asymmetric, partial-halo signature starting at 09/2024 UTC, thought to be associated with the filament eruption. We are awaiting modeling of the imagery to determine if there is a significant Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares over the next three days (10-12 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1380 pfu at 09/1325 UTC. Upward trending flux was suppressed by periods of Bz south in the later half of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one through three (10-12 Jun) in response to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed was relatively steady in the 600 km/s to 650 km/s range. Total field remained steady around 4 nT to 5 nT while the Bz component was variable between -4 nT and +5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative (towards).

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly diminish through days one and two (10-11 Jun) as CH HSS effects wane. A return to nominal conditions is expected by day three (12 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to continued CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to active levels (Below G1-Minor) on day one (10 Jun) as CH HSS effects persist. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected by day two (11 Jun) as coronal hole effects diminish. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (12 Jun).

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