[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity increased to moderate levels with an impulsive M1 flare (R1-minor) observed at 11/0855 UTC from an area of enhanced emission on the east limb near S19. Current SDO/HMI Intensitygram imagery reveals a cluster of sunspots rotating onto the SE limb in the vicinity of the M1 flare.

Numerous low to mid-level C-class activity occurred during the period, primarily from Region 2360 (N14W48, Cai/beta-gamma). The largest C-class activity was a C4/Sf from Region 2360 observed at 11/0243 UTC. The region continued its slow decline exhibiting leader and intermediate spot decay. Region 2365 (S12E01, Cao/beta) indicated some consolidation in the leader portion with slight intermediate spot growth. Region 2366 (N17W02, Dao/beta) had mature penumbra growth with some leader spot decay.

The remainder of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class activity over the next three days (11-13 Jun), primarily from areas of enhanced emission on the east limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4603 pfu at 10/1735 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels on days one through three (11-13 Jun) in response to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued under CH HSS influence through the period. Solar wind speeds remained in the mid 500 km/s to lower 600 km/s range with total field values ranging between 2 nT and 6 nT. The Bz component was variable between +/-3 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominately negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly diminish through the remainder of day one and early into day two (11-12 Jun) as CH HSS effects wane. A glancing blow from the 09 Jun CME is expected to impact the geomagnetic field approximately midday on day two (12 Jun), resulting in a further enhancement to solar wind parameters. WSA/Enlil model output suggests solar wind speeds in the 600-700 km/s range. A slow recovery from CME effects is expected on day three (13 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to continued CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of day one through early on day two (11-12 Jun). A glancing blow from the 09 Jun CME is expected to arrive approximately midday on day two (12 Jun), resulting in unsettled to active conditions with minor storm periods (G1-minor) likely. Unsettled to active levels are expected to persist through early on day three (13 Jun) and return to quiet to unsettled levels by the end of the period as CME effects diminish.

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