[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary:

Solar activity was at low levels. A C8/SF flare from Region 2367 (S18E61, Cai/beta) was the largest of the period. The regions trailer and intermediate spots grew in area as they rotated further onto the disk. Region 2360 (N16W68, Eki/beta-gamma) also exhibited notably rapid growth in the trailer and intermediate spots in the past 24 hours. These two regions produced the vast majority of the C-class activity observed today. All other regions on the disk displayed only minor changes.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) activity over the next three days (12-14 Jun), primarily due to the flare potential from Regions 2360 and 2367.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 6030 pfu at 11/1805 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels on days one through three (12-14 Jun) in response to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were trending back to nominal conditions. Wind speeds slowly decreased from around 580 km/s to around 450 km/s by 12/1200 UTC. Total field was between 2 - 4 nT and Bz was predominantly northward in orientation. Phi angle began the period in the negative (towards) sector and transitioned to the positive (away) sector between 12/0000 - 12/0100 UTC.

Forecast:

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal on day one (12 Jun). A possible glancing blow from a CME on 09 Jun may enhance the magnetic field, density, and wind speed late on day one into day two (12 - 13 Jun). Effects from the CME would be expected to wane late on day two into day three (13 - 14 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet as solar wind returns to ambient background conditions.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with minor storm periods (G1-minor) likely late on day one (12 Jun) from a possible interaction with a CME from 09 Jun. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on days two and three (13-14 Jun) as CME effects diminish.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation