[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels this period. Region 2360 (N15W75, Eac/beta-gamma) was the most productive region on the visible disk and produced an M1/Sf flare at 13/0729 UTC and a C8/Sf flare at 12/2348 UTC, in addition to multiple low to mid-level C-class flares throughout the period. Region 2360 continued to show signs of development this period and maintained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Regions 2368 (S06W45, Bxo/beta) and 2369 (N06E62, Bxo/beta) were numbered this period but were otherwise unremarkable. The remaining four active sunspot regions were either stable or in decay.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery, although imagery has been sparse with only 10 relevant images available from SOHO/LASCO C2 in the last 24 hours. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (13-15 Jun) with Region 2360 being the likely source of subsequent activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels this period, reaching a peak flux of 8,590 pfu at 12/1515 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over the next three days (13-15 Jun) in response to the enhanced solar wind environment earlier in the week. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind velocity increased from initial values near 450 km/s to around 550 km/s by 12/2230 UTC before slowly decreasing to around 475 km/s after 13/0000 UTC. IMF total field strength values varied between 1-10 nT between 12/1200-13/0000 UTC before holding steady near 5 nT for the remainder of the period. The Bz component of the magnetic field was mostly northward throughout the period. Phi data showed a transition from a negative (toward the Sun) solar sector orientation to a positive (away from the Sun) sector orientation at around 12/1500 UTC, where it remained for the rest of the period. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels for the remainder of day one (13 Jun). The onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) on day two (14 Jun) is expected to prompt a solar wind enhancement with velocities in excess of 550 km/s likely. Solar wind parameters are likely to begin a return to background levels by midday on day three (15 Jun) as CH HSS effects subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under an ambient solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of day one (13 Jun) with an increase to unsettled to active levels expected on day two (14 Jun) due to a CIR preceding the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Weak CH HSS effects are expected to begin waning by midday on day three (15 Jun) with field activity decreasing to quiet to unsettled levels.

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