[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 14 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels this period. Region 2360 (N15W84, Cao/beta) produced the largest event of the period, an M2 (R1-Minor) flare at 14/0059 UTC, in addition to multiple low to mid-level C-class flares throughout the period. Region 2365 (S15W40, Cao/beta) produced a long-duration C5 flare at 14/0417 UTC which resulted in a coronal mass ejection (CME) first observed in available SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 14/0712 UTC, although we are awaiting further coronagraph imagery to determine if this CME has an Earth-directed component. See the 15/0000 UTC discussion for additional information.

The leader spot area of Region 2360 began to rotate around the western limb this period which made proper magnetic and sunspot classification difficult. Region 2367 (S22E41, Eki/beta-gamma) grew in extent and spot count this period and is now the most magnetically complex region on the visible disk. The remaining active regions were either stable or in decay.

A large filament centered near N34E46 was observed lifting off along the filament channel from northeast to the southwest in SDO/AIA 304 imagery between 14/0515-0945 UTC. An associated CME was observed in C2 coronagraph imagery at 14/0724 UTC but was directed well north of the Sun-Earth line. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low over the next three days (14-16 Jun) with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity on days one and two with only a slight chance for M-class activity on day three as Region 2360 rotates behind the west limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels early in the period, peaking at 3,600 pfu at 13/1710 UTC, but decreased sharply to normal levels after 13/2120 UTC in response to an enhanced solar wind environment.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (14-16 Jun) in response to the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (14-16 Jun).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding the anticipated positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were steady near 475-500 km/s until 14/0315 UTC when speeds slowly increased to end-of-period values near 575-600 km/s. IMF total field strength increased from initial values near 5 nT to end-of-period values near 11 nT while the Bz component was mostly southward after 13/2200 UTC, reaching a maximum southward component of -8 nT late in the period. The phi angle began the period in a positive (away from the Sun) sector orientation but became highly variable after 13/2200 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on days one and two (14-15 Jun) due to the effects of a CIR followed by the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds are expected to begin a return to background levels by day three (16 Jun) as CH HSS influence begins to subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels for the first half of the period with an increase to active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels (14/0900-1200 UTC) observed in the latter half of the period. Some high-latitude ground-based magnetometer stations observed strong to severe geomagnetic storm conditions late in the period. This enhanced field activity was caused by the onset of a CIR ahead of the anticipated positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on day one (14 Jun) with quiet to active levels on day two (15 Jun) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels by day three (16 Jun) as CH HSS effects subside.

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