[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. An unnumbered region on the northeast limb produced the largest event of the period, a C2 flare at 15/1032 UTC. Region 2367 (S20E28, Ekc/beta-gamma) continued to grow in size and showed penumbral development in its intermediate spots but remained quiet.

A large prominence centered near N15W90 erupted at 15/0421 UTC. An associated CME was observed in C2 coronagraph imagery at 15/0448 UTC but was directed well west of the Sun-Earth line.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low over the next three days (15-17 Jun) with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity on days one and two with only a slight chance for M-class activity on day three as Region 2360 rotates further behind the west limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux recovered to moderate levels, reaching 992 pfu at 14/1655 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (15-17 Jun) in response to the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (15-17 Jun).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the onset the anticipated positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were steady near 575-620 km/s. IMF total field strength has averaged values near 5 nT while the Bz component has oscillated between positive and negative through the period, reaching a maximum southward component of -5 nT. The phi angle was mostly positive (away from the Sun).

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one (15 Jun) due to the effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds are expected to begin a return to background levels by day two (16 Jun) as CH HSS influence begins to subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels for the first forecast period (14/09-12 UTC). The enhanced field activity was caused by the onset of a CIR ahead of the anticipated positive polarity CH HSS. Activity decreased to quiet to unsettled conditions for the second half of the day.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jun) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels by day two (16 Jun) and mostly quiet conditions on day three (17 Jun) as CH HSS effects subside.

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