[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. A C2 flare was the largest of the period from a new region rotating onto the NE limb. Region 2367 (S20E12 Ehc/beta-gamma) was the the most complex numbered region on the disk. It remained mostly quiet and stable through the period with only minor growth noted in the intermediate spots. All other numbered regions on the disk were stable or in decay.

LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery displayed CME signatures but were not associated with any event observed on the near-side of the Sun.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (16-18 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux returned to high levels within the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (16-18 Jun) in delayed response to the waning influence of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (16-18 Jun).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds decreased slightly over the period from around 600 km/s to near 530 km/s. IMF total field strength has fluctuated between 4-7 nT while the Bz component has oscillated between positive and negative through the period, reaching a maximum southward component of -5 nT. The phi angle was mostly positive (away from the Sun).

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one (16 Jun) due to continued effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds are expected to begin a return to background levels by day two (17 Jun) as the CH HSS influence continues to subside. Nominal conditions are forecast for day three (18 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled conditions today, with prolonged periods of sustained Bz south responsible for isolated active conditions.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels, with a chance for a period of minor storm conditions from spans of prolonged southward Bz orientation. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels by day two (17 Jun) and mostly quiet conditions on day three (18 Jun) as the CH HSS effects fully subside.

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