[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 17 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. A long duration C3 flare from Region 2371 (N13E60 Eho/beta) at 17/0001 UTC was the largest of the period. This region exhibited some minor growth in its intermediate spots. Region 2367 (S20W01 Ekc/beta-gamma), the other complex region on the disk, remained remarkably quiet and stable during the past 24 hours. All other regions were either stable or in decay.

LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery indicated a CME off the SW limb at 16/1812 UTC. AIA 193 imagery showed associated coronal dimming from activity around the west limb. Current analysis suggests no Earth-directed component from the event.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (17-19 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux returned to high levels within the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels for day one (17 Jun) in continued response to the waning influence of a positive coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Electron flux is forecast to decrease to moderate levels for days two and three (18-19 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (17-19 Jun).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were elevated over the period between around 580 km/s to 460 km/s. IMF total field strength began the period near 5 nT, increasing to a peak of 9 nT at 16/1814 UTC, then decreasing to around 6 nT by the end of the period. Bz was oscillating between -4 nT and 5 nT until after 17/0100 UTC where it maintained a predominantly sustained southward component around -5 nT. The phi angle was mostly at a positive orientation (away from the Sun).

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one (17 Jun) due to continued effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. Day two (18 Jun) is expected to see influence from the CH HSS taper off. Nominal conditions are forecast for day three (19 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled conditions today, with prolonged periods of sustained southward Bz responsible for the field reaching unsettled conditions.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Jun). Isolated active periods are possible from sustained southward Bz as the CH HSS continues to enhance the solar wind. Field activity is expected to steadily decrease to mostly quiet conditions over days two and three (18-19 Jun) as the CH HSS influence subsides.

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