[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 27 1240 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 27 1240 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels with a single C1 x-ray event observed at 27/1104 UTC from Region 2371 (N12W73, Ekc/beta-gamma). Region 2371, the lone spotted region on the disk, continued to exhibit minor decay, especially in its trailer spot area. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare activity on days one and two (27-28 Jun) due to the flare potential of Region 2371. By day three (29 Jun) Region 2371 is expected to fully transit the west limb and solar activity is expected to decrease to only a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for X-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux value of 3252 pfu observed at 27/1110 UTC. Electron flux was still rising at the time of this report. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold at 26/0230 UTC and reached a peak flux value of 22 pfu at 27/0030 UTC. 10 MeV proton flux values remained at or above the S1 event threshold for the remainder of the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high levels on day one (27 Jun) before the arrival of the 25 Jun CME. CME passage is expected to redistribute electrons prompting a decrease to normal flux levels for days two and three (28-29 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to meander around the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm level on day one (27 Jun) with a minor enhancement possible as the 25 Jun CME arrives at Earth. As the CME passes Earth, there is a chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm on day two (28 Jun) with only a slight chance on day three (29 Jun).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained enhanced through about 27/0330 UTC. Solar wind speeds varied between about 450 km/s to 550 km/s. IMF total field strength values were steady near 4-5 nT, while Bz briefly reached a maximum southward component of -3 nT late on 26 Jun. At about 27/0330 UTC, a further enhancement in wind parameters were observed when wind speeds increased to a maximum of 875 km/s near 27/0500 UTC before settling to an average speed of about 700 km/s. Total field reached a maximum of 13 nT while Bz reached a maximum southward extent of -5 nT. The phi angle remained in a positive (away) solar sector throughout the period. The further enhancement was possibly associated with an earlier than anticipated arrival of the 25 Jun CME.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced midday to late on day one (27 Jun) and through day two (28 Jun) due to the anticipated arrival of the 25 Jun CME. Solar wind parameters are expected to begin a return to background levels by day three (29 Jun) as CME effects subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels until midday to late on day one (27 Jun). The anticipated arrival of the 25 Jun CME is expected to cause periods of G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions for the remainder of day one and day two (27-28 Jun). A decrease to unsettled to active field conditions are expected on day three (29 Jun) as CME effects subside.

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