[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2371 (N13W86, Cao/beta) was stable throughout the period and produced a C1 flare at 27/1104 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. New Region 2373 (N15E71, Dso/beta) rotated onto the disk this period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity and a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare activity on days one and two (28-29 Jun) due to the flare potential of Region 2371. As Region 2371 rotates behind the west limb by day three (30 Jun) solar activity is likely to be low.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels and reached a peak flux of 5,778 pfu at 27/1450 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained enhanced, but below the S1 (Minor) threshold.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels throughout the forecast period (28-30 Jun). There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement exceeding the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold on day one (28 Jun) and a slight chance on day two (29 Jun) due to the flare potential of Region 2371 and an elevated 10 MeV proton flux. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to return to background levels by day three (30 Jun).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated a slow return to near back-background levels. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 650 km/s to around 450 km/s by periods end. IMF total field strength values varied between 2-10 nT. The Bz component was initially mostly northward to 7 nT through 27/2024 UTC when it became mostly southward to -7 nT through the end of the period. The phi angle was highly variable between positive (away) and negative (towards) solar sectors throughout the period. Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue its return to background levels over the next three days (28-30 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with possible periods of active conditions on day one (28 Jun) as CME impacts wane. Quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Jun) are expected to decrease to generally quiet levels by day three (30 Jun) as the magnetosphere returns to an ambient state.

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