[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels with an isolated C1/Sf flare at 10/1613 UTC from Region 2385 (N08W61, Dao/beta). Slight decay was observed in the intermediate spot area of Region 2385 while separation was observed in Region 2384 (S18E30, Cao/beta). The remaining spotted regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over the next three days (11-13 Jul), primarily due to flare potential of Regions 2381 and 2385.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels, with a peak flux of 2750 pfu at 10/1715 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels throughout the period (11-13 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) in advance of a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed increased from approximately 330 km/s early in the period to near 630 km/s by the end of the period. Total field increased from 5 nT to a maximum of 23 nT at 11/0229 UTC before decreasing to 7 nT by 11/0716 UTC. The Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -15 nT at 10/2250 UTC. Phi angle switched from a mostly negative sector (towards) to positive (away) around 10/2248 UTC.

Forecast: Effects from the CH HSS are expected to continue into day two (12 Jul). By day three (13 Jul), nominal conditions are expected to return as the CH HSS wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm conditions during the period. The CIR followed by the onset of a recurrent CH HSS resulted in minor storm levels during the 10/2100-2400 UTC and 11/0300-0600 UTC periods.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for the rest of the UTC day on day one (11 Jul) and continue through day two (12 Jul) as CH HSS effects persist. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected by day three (13 Jul) as CH HSS effects diminish.

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