[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at low levels with an isolated C1/Sf flare at 11/1836 UTC from Region 2385 (N08W75, Dao/beta). Region 2385 continued to show slight decay in its intermediate and trailing spot area. Slight decay was also observed in the smaller intermediate spots of Region 2381 (N15W44, Fko/beta). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over the next three days (12-14 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (12-14 Jul) in response to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed was mostly in the 560 km/s to 640 km/s range with a decrease in total field over the period from 8 nT to 4 nT. The Bz component was variable between +/-7 nT. Phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Effects from the CH HSS are expected to continue to disrupt the solar wind environment into day two (13 Jul). By day three (14 Jul), nominal conditions are expected to return as the CH HSS wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under continued CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels through day one (12 Jul). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two-three (13-14 Jul) as CH HSS effects diminish.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation