[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels with only B-class flaring from Region 2385 (N08W89, Dao/beta). Region 2385 appeared to be in decay as it was rotating around the west limb. The rest of the spotted regions were relatively stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (13-15 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (13-15 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters showed the continued presence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) coupled with an increase in total field, density, as well as a prolonged period of southward Bz by mid-period. Solar wind speeds were initially in the 539 km/s to 663 km/s range with total field fairly steady around 4 nT. At 13/0102 UTC, solar wind speed increased to a maximum of 700 km/s with an initial field increase to 8 nT. Total field continued to increase to around 10 nT while the Bz component deflected southward and stayed at negative values oscillating between -3 nT and -9 nT. However, after 13/0240 UTC a decreasing trend in solar wind speeds was observed. By the end of the period, solar wind speeds were near 500 km/s. Phi angle was consistently in a positive (away) orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Effects from the CH HSS are expected to continue to disrupt the solar wind environment on day one (13 Jul). By day two (14 Jul), a slow decline towards nominal conditions are expected as the CH HSS wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) due to CH HSS effects coupled with an increase in total field and a prolonged period of southward Bz. Minor storm levels were observed during the 13/0300-1200 UTC time-frame.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels through the rest of the UTC day on day one (13 Jul) and at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods on day two (14 Jul) as CH HSS activity persists. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (15 Jul) as effects diminish.

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