[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to an isolated C1/Sf flare at 14/0925 UTC from Region 2381 (N15W72, Fko/beta). Region 2386 (N11E50, Hsx/alpha) and an unnumbered region beyond the NE limb contributed to the B-class flaring. Those included a B6 flare at 13/2348 UTC from Region 2386 and another B6 flare at 14/0354 UTC from the NE limb. At approximately 14/0540 UTC, a coronal mass ejection (CME) could be seen exiting the NW limb in SDO/AIA 193 imagery. Although the CME is not expected to be geoeffective, a brightening could be seen in SXI imagery on the NW limb which corresponded to an increase in X-ray flux levels to the B9 level. The peak of the flare was a B9 at 14/0552 UTC.

Slight decay was observed in the smaller trailing spots of Region 2384 (S18W11, Cao/beta) while the rest of the spotted regions were relatively stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (14-16 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (14-16 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated a slow decrease towards ambient levels. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 530 km/s to near 440 km/s while total field was mostly between 7 nT and 8 nT. The Bz component was initially southward near -6 nT before it rotated northward around 14/0300 UTC. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to decline through day two (14-15 Jul) as coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects wane. By day three (16 Jul), solar wind conditions are expected to be at or near ambient levels.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels due to continued CH HSS activity coupled with prolong periods of negative Bz. Minor storming occurred during the 13/1800-2100 UTC time-frame.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods for the second half of the UTC day on day one and continue through day two (14-15 Jul) as CH HSS effects diminish. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (16 Jul).

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation