[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels over the period due to an isolated C1 flare at 14/1210 UTC from an unnumbered region rotating onto the NE limb near N16. Slight decay was observed in the trailing spots of Region 2381 (N12W85, Eso/beta) as it was rotating around the NW limb. The rest of the spotted regions were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (15-17 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels levels with a maximum flux of 1,510 pfu at 15/1005 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (15-17 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speed continued to be elevated with speeds between 378 km/s early in the period to 634 km/s by mid-period. After 15/0600 UTC, solar wind speeds appeared to be in decline to end of period values near 500 km/s. Total field was between 6 nT and 10 nT with the Bz component mostly northward between +/-8 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a positive (away) sector.

Forecast: A slow return to ambient solar wind parameters is expected through day two (15-16 Jul) with ambient levels forecast for day three (17 Jul) as coronal hole high speed stream conditions wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the rest of the UTC day on day one (15 Jul). Mostly quiet conditions are expected for days two through three (16-17 Jul).

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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