[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low as no significant flare activity occurred during the period. Regions 2386 (N11W54, Hsx/alpha) and 2387 (N17W15, Dai/beta) continued to show signs of overall decay throughout the period, and remained stable and unremarkable. There were no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (22-24 Jul).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels with a peak flux of 120 pfu, observed at 21/1315 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (22-24 Jul), while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected the waning influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speed began the period near 400 km/s but gradually decreased to approximately 350 km/s by the end of the period. Total field strength (Bt) ranged between 5 nT and 9 nT, while the Bz component varied between +6 nT and -9 nT. The phi angle remained in a positive (away) solar sector throughout the period. Forecast: Nominal conditions are expected to continue on day one (22 Jul) as CH HSS effects wane. Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to return early on day two (23 Jul) with the expected arrival of the 19 Jul CME. Late on day three (24 Jul), the onset of an additional positive polarity CH HSS is anticipated to impact the solar wind environment.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The Earths geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet conditions on day one (22 Jul) as CH HSS effects continue to wane. Early on day two (23 Jul), quiet to active conditions are expected following the anticipated arrival of the 19 Jul CME. Quiet to active conditions should persist on day three (24 Jul) with the arrival of an additional positive polarity CH HSS late in the day.

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