[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 23 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2386 (Hsx/alpha, N10W68) remained stable and unremarkable. Region 2387 (Csi/beta, N17W31) continued to decay, losing most of its leader and intermediate spots. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in satellite imagery during the period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (23-25 Jul).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels with a peak flux of 176 pfu, observed at 22/1905 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (23-25 Jul), while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected an enhanced solar wind environment. Solar wind speeds began the period near 350 km/s before beginning a gradual rise just after 22/1530 UTC to reach maximum velocities near 435 km/s. Shortly after 23/0400 UTC, a second increase in speeds occurred, reaching a peak speed near 485 km/s, before decreasing slightly to end-of-period speeds near 435 km/s once again. The IMF total field strength (Bt) fluctuated between 2 nT and 12 nT. The negative component of the IMF (Bz) varied between +/- 7 nT through the first half of the period. Just after the turn of the UT day, Bz began fluctuating even more, varying between +8 nT and -11 nT for the remainder of the period. Phi angle remained mostly positive (away) with a couple of brief oscillations into the negative (towards) sector. Forecast: Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to persist for the first half of day one (23 Jul) with continued effects from the glancing blow CME from 19 July combined with a suspected co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of the anticipated positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Late on day two (24 Jul), effects from the positive polarity CH HSS are anticipated to keep the solar wind environment enhanced. The enhancement should begin to taper off by day three (25 Jul) as CME and CH HSS effects subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor (G1-Minor) storm levels.

Forecast: Quiet to active conditions are expected to persist for the remainder of day one (23 Jul) as CME and CIR effects persist. Quiet to active conditions should continue on day two (24 Jul) with the continued influence of the positive polarity CH HSS. Day three (25 Jul) should see quiet to unsettled conditions as CH HSS effects wane.

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