[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels during the period. Newly numbered Region 2389 (S11E68, Bxo/beta) produced a C1 flare at 24/0312 UTC, as well as a few mid-level B-class flares, as it made its way onto the eastern limb. No associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in coronagraph imagery. Region 2386 (N09W81, Hax/alpha) exhibited little change as it neared the west limb. Region 2387 (N17W40, Hsx/alpha) decayed even further throughout the period, losing nearly all penumbra and all but a few spots. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in satellite imagery during the period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares for days one and two (24-25 Jul) increasing to a chance on day three (26 Day) as old active Region 2381 (N15, L=076) returns.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (24-26 Jul), while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a slightly enhanced solar wind environment due to waning CME influence. Solar wind speeds remained fairly consistent near 450-460 km/s. The IMF total field strength (Bt) experienced a slight, yet steady decline from near 10 nT at the beginning of the period to close to 6 nT at the end. The Bz component generally varied between +/-7 nT, eventually settling in to average between +/- 3 nT by the end of the period. Phi angle remained mostly positive (away) through the entire period. Forecast: Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to persist through days one and two (24-25 Jul) due to waning CME effects combined with an expected co-rotating interaction region (CIR), in advance of an anticipated positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). By midday on day three (26 Jul), effects from the positive polarity CH HSS are anticipated to weaken.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated period (23/1800-2100) at active levels due to residual effects from the 19 Jul CME.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for active conditions, are expected for day one (24 Jul) as waning CME effects are coupled with effects from a CIR in advance of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance for active periods, are expected for day two (25 Jul) due to CH HSS effects. By day three (26 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels are expected as CH HSS effects wane.

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