[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. The largest event of the period was a B8/Sf flare at 01/0131 UTC from Region 2393 (N17E28, Cao/beta). Slight decay was observed in the trailer portion of the region. Region 2390 (S14W73, Cao/beta) exhibited trailer spot consolidation. The rest of the spotted regions were stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (01-03 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels through the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (01 Aug) with moderate to high levels expected on days two and three (02-03 Aug) due to high speed winds associated with a negative polarity coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained elevated over the period due to a geoeffective negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed gradually increased from approximately 460 km/s early in the period to an average of about 575 km/s with a maximum of 655 km/s observed at 01/0706 UTC. Total field decreased from 12 nT to 5 nT while the Bz component ranged from +11 nT to -10 nT. Phi angle remained in a predominantly negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are anticipated to remain at elevated levels through the period (01-03 Aug) due to continued CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) on day one (01 Aug) due to CH HSS influence. Unsettled to active levels are expected on day two (02 Aug) with mostly unsettled levels on day three (03 Aug) as the high speed stream persists.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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