[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to an isolated C1 flare observed at 01/2005 UTC from Region 2390 (S15W85, Cao/beta). The region also produced a few B-class flares. Slight consolidation was observed in the trailing spots of Region 2390. Slight growth was observed in the trailing spots of Region 2393 (N18E14, Cao/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were stable.

Two CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the east limb, both associated with eruptive prominences. The first CME was observed off the NE limb at 01/1812 UTC while the second CME was observed off the SE limb at 01/2212 UTC. Neither CME is expected to have an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (02-04 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with an observed peak flux of 270 pfu at 02/1155 UTC. Flux levels were still increasing at report time. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels through the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (02-04 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained enhanced under the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds ranged from about 510 km/s to near 660 km/s. Total field ranged between 4 nT to 6 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-6 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards) sector throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through the remainder of day one (02 Aug) under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. A slow decline towards background levels are expected by days two and three (03-04 Aug) as CH HSS effects diminish.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for the remainder of day one (02 Aug) as CH HSS activity persists. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days two and three (03-04 Aug) as coronal hole effects diminish.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation