[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2396 (S17W05, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced multiple C-class flares throughout the period, the largest of which was a C5/Sf flare at 07/1941 UTC. Region 2396 exhibited minor penumbral growth in its intermediate spot area and persists as the most productive and magnetically complex region on the disk. Region 2394 (N11W45, Cso/beta) exhibited minor decay early this period followed by minor resurgence late in the period, but remained unproductive. The remaining four active regions were stable throughout the period.

Two filament eruptions in the southeast quadrant were observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery this period. The first eruption, centered near S27E45 and estimated to be 25 degrees in extent, erupted at 07/1809 UTC. The second eruption, centered near S36E78 and estimated to be 18 degrees in extent, erupted at 07/2240 UTC. A narrow coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the first filament eruption was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 07/2048 UTC but this event is not expected to be Earth-directed. It is unclear at this time whether there was a CME associated with the second filament eruption due to a lack of available coronagraph imagery, but given the similar source location it would likely not be Earth-directed. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over the next three days (08-10 Aug) due to the flare potential of Region 2396.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels this period with a maximum flux value of 1,850 pfu observed at 07/1755 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on day one (08 Aug) and decrease to normal to moderate levels on days two and three (09-10 Aug) due to an increase in geomagnetic activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over the next three days (08-10 Aug).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of waning coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind velocity decreased from initial values near 570 km/s to end-of-period values near 475-500 km/s. IMF total field strength values varied between 6 and 11 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT late in the period. The phi angle remained steady in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation throughout the period. Forecast: Solar wind velocity is expected to continue to decrease throughout day one (08 Aug) as CH HSS influence subsides. The anticipated onset of another positive polarity CH HSS is expected to enhance the solar wind environment on days two and three (09-10 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels this period with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions observed between 07/1200-1500 UTC due to the effects of a positive polarity CH HSS and subsequent substorming.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Aug) and quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on days two and three (09-10 Aug) due to the effects of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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