[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2396 (S19W19, Ekc/beta) produced a long-duration C4/Sf flare at 09/0752 UTC which was the largest event on the period. Region 2396 began to show signs of penumbral decay and consolidation this period while the remaining three regions on the visible disk were stable throughout the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over the next three days (09-11 Aug) due to the flare potential of Region 2396.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels this period and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (09-10 Aug) and is likely to reach high levels on day three (11 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the likely onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) late in the period. Wind speeds were initially steady between 475-525 km/s until 09/0300 UTC when wind speeds slowly increased to end-of-period values near 575 km/s. IMF total field strength values varied between 3-9 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT early in the period. The phi angle was generally stable in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation throughout the period. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become further enhanced on days one and two (09-10 Aug) due to continued CH HSS influence. As CH HSS effects begin to wane by day three (11 Aug) solar wind parameters are expected to begin a return to nominal levels.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under an ambient solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on days one and two (09-10 Aug) due to the effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active levels are expected on day three (11 Aug) as CH HSS effects weaken.

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