[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2396 (S18W31, Ekc/beta) produced a B8/Sf flare at 10/0610 UTC and a B7/Sf flare at 10/0911 UTC which were the only reportable events of the period. Region 2396 underwent minor development throughout the period with penumbral growth and additional spot development observed in its intermediate and trailer spot areas. The remaining two active regions on the visible disk were stable and unproductive. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low over the next three days (10-12 Aug) with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity due to the flare potential of Region 2396.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux value of 2,250 pfu observed at 09/1825 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (10-12 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the continued influence of a weak positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds were relatively steady near 525 km/s throughout the period. IMF total field strength values were steady near 5 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT early in the period. The phi angle was mostly stable in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation with a few brief transitions to a negative sector observed late in the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on days one (10 Aug) and into early day two (11 Aug) as CH HSS influence begins to wane. A return to background levels is expected by day three (12 Aug) under an ambient solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period due to weak CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10-11 Aug) as weak CH HSS effects wane. Quiet field conditions are expected to return on day three (12 Aug) under an ambient solar wind environment.

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