[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 11 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2396 (S18W44, Ekc/beta) was responsible for multiple B-flares throughout the period. The other spotted regions on the visible disk were stable and quiet. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low over the next three days (11-13 Aug) with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity due to the flare potential in Region 2396.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux value of 1,560 pfu observed at 10/1610 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (11-13 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) influence. Solar wind speeds decreased from averages near 520 km/s early before steadying near 440 km/s. IMF total field strength values were between 8 nT and 4 nT while Bz oscillated between positive and negative with a maximum deflection of -5 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away) orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced early on day one (11 Aug) as CH HSS influence continues to wane. A return to background levels is expected by day two and three (12-13 Aug) under an ambient solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Aug) as weak CH HSS effects diminish. Quiet field conditions are expected to return on days two and three (12-13 Aug) as the solar wind environment returns to ambient conditions.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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