[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2396 (S18W51, Ekc/beta) produced the largest event of the period with a C1 flare at 11/1515 UTC. Region 2396 decreased in areal coverage by losing spots in its intermediate and trailing areas and was responsible for the majority of the B-class flaring throughout the reporting period. New Regions 2399 (S16W00, Bxo/beta) and 2400 (N17E36, Bxo/beta) were numbered today. Region 2400 produced a B4/Sf flare at 11/1700 UTC.

There was an eruptive prominence observed near 12/0121 UTC. The eruption was off the East limb near S25E90. There were no Earth directed CMEs detected in LASCO coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low over the next three days (12-14 Aug) with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity due to the flare potential in Region 2396.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux value of 4,102 pfu observed at 11/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (12-14 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters measured at the ACE spacecraft were indicative of background solar wind conditions. Solar wind speeds reached a peak of 467 km/s at 11/1244 UTC and ended the period at approximately 400 km/s. IMF total field strength ranged between 3 to 8 nT while the maximum southward deflection of the Bz component was -6 nT. The phi angle began the period oscillating between sectors before settling into a positive (away) orientation near 11/1830 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient levels throughout the forecast period (12-14 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (12 Aug). Quiet field conditions are expected to return on days two and three (13-14 Aug) as the solar wind environment returns to ambient levels.

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