[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2396 (S18W71, Ekc/beta) remained the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk but was absent of significant flare activity. The remaining sunspot groups were in a state of decay and were unremarkable.

A thirteen degree disappearing solar filament (DSF), centered at S22W31, lifted off from the solar disk at approximately 12/1332 UTC. A partial-halo CME associated with this DSF was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 12/1448 UTC. Forecaster analysis and WSA/ENLIL modeling of this event is ongoing as additional satellite imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low over the next three days (13-15 Aug) with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux value of 2,834 pfu observed at 12/1450 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (13-15 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were indicative of background solar wind conditions. Solar wind speeds were steady in the 380-420 km/s range throughout the period. IMF total field strength ranged between 2 and 8 nT while the maximum southward deflection of the Bz component was -7 nT. The phi angle oscillated during the period but was predominantly in a positive (away) orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient levels throughout the forecast period (13-15 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated period of active conditions due to a sustained southward Bz component.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on day one (13 Aug). Days two and three (14-15 Aug) are expected to be dominated by quiet conditions as the solar wind environment returns to ambient levels.

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