[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2401 (S11E44, Cai) showed growth in its leader and trailer spots and was responsible for the largest flare of the period, a C1/Sf flare at 14/0200 UTC, along with several other low level flares. Region 2400 (N17E01, Cso/beta) showed consolidation in both its leader and trailer spots and was inactive. Region 2396 (S18W85, Cso/beta) showed signs of decay in its trailer spots and was quiet as it approached the limb.

A disappearing solar filament (DSF) centered near S07W47 was observed at approximately 14/0630 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on available LASCO coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to reach low-levels on day one (14 Aug) with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) activity. A chance for low-level activity exists on days two and three (15-16 Aug) following the departure of Region 2396.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels this period with a peak flux of 299 pfu at 13/1655 UTC and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (14-16 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters measured by the ACE spacecraft were indicative of background solar wind conditions. Solar wind speeds gradually declined from speeds near 380 km/s to near 320 km/s. IMF total field strength ranged between 5 and 9 nT and the maximum southward deflection of the Bz component was -6 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away) orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient levels on days one and two (14-15 Aug). Enhanced conditions are expected on day three (16 Aug) due to effects from a combination of the arrival of the 12 Aug CME and a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet on days one and two (14-15 Aug). Active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels are expected on day three (16 Aug) due to effects from a combination of the arrival of the 12 Aug CME and a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS.

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