[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2401 (S12E31, Cao/beta) produced two B-class flares, the largest being a B5/Sf flare at 15/0430 UTC. Both Region 2400 (N17W11, Cao/beta) and Region 2401 were stable and unremarkable for the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected on available LASCO coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares (Below R1-Minor) for the next three days (15-17 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels this period with a peak flux of 328 pfu at 14/1530 UTC and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (15-17 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters measured by the ACE spacecraft were indicative of background solar wind conditions until 15/0745 UTC when a sudden impulse occurred due to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole. Solar wind speeds jumped from near 350 km/s to near 500 km/s. IMF total field strength jumped from 11 nT to as high as 28 nT while the maximum southward deflection of the Bz component was -20 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away) orientation.

Forecast: Enhanced conditions are expected to linger through the forecast period due to the combination of the arrival of the CIR ahead of the CH HSS on day one (15 Aug) and the arrival of the 12 Aug CME on day two (16 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached strong levels.

Forecast: Active to severe storm (G3-Strong) conditions are expected on day one due to the arrival of a possible CME from 12 Aug. Minor storm (G1) conditions are likely for day two (16 Aug) with the lingering CME effects and a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions are expected to continue into day three (17 Aug) under continued CH HSS influence.

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