[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2401 (S11E16, Cri/beta) produced the only C-class event of the period, a C1/Sf at 15/1236 UTC. Both Region 2401 and 2400 (N18W25, Cao/beta) exhibited signs of decay. A filament erupted along an 8 degree long channel centered near N12W37 at approximately 15/1200 UTC. The associated CME became visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 15/1325 UTC. Forecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling indicated the CME was directed off the Sun-Earth line. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares (Below R1-Minor) for the next three days (16-18 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal background levels this period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (16-18 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters measured by the ACE spacecraft were enhanced for the period due to the arrival of the 12 Aug CME. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from about 480 km/s to near 550 km/s. Total field gradually declined from its observed peak of 21 nT a 15/1442 UTC and ended the period near 9 nT. The Bz component was mostly south during the period with a maximum deflection of -12 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away) orientation.

Forecast: Enhanced conditions are expected to linger through the forecast period due to the combination of continued CME effects and the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) anticipated to become geoeffective on day one (16 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached major storm (G2 Moderate) levels.

Forecast: Major storm (G2 Moderate) conditions are expected on day one (16 Aug) due to lingering CME effects and a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions are expected to continue into day two (17 Aug) under continued CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (18 Aug) as HSS effects subside.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation