[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The lone spotted region on the disk, Region 2401 (S11E04, Cso/beta) showed signs of decay and was relatively quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on available LASCO coronagraph imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares (Below R1-Minor) for the next three days (17-19 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a peak flux of 1441 pfu observed at 17/0310 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (17-19 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters measured by the ACE spacecraft remained enhanced following the departure of the 12 Aug CME due to effects from a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds gradually increased from about 550 km/s to near 580 km/s. Total field strength reached a peak of 11 nT early then settled out at near 7 nT for the remainder of the period. The Bz component oscillated throughout the period with a maximum deflection of -7 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away) orientation.

Forecast: Enhanced conditions are expected to linger on day one (17 Aug) due to the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). A combination of CMEs from two filament eruptions observed in the SW on 14 Aug is expected to disturb the solar wind environment early on day two (18 Aug) and continue into day three (19 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to residual CME effects and the onset of CH HSS influence.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely on day one (17 Aug) under continued CH HSS influence. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day two (18 Aug) due to effects from a combination of CMEs from two separate filament eruptions observed in the SW on 14 Aug. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (19 Aug) as CME effects subside.

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