[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 18 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2401 (S10W09, Cro/beta) showed signs of decay and produced two B-class flares. New Region 2403 (S16E75, Cso/beta) was numbered and contributed a single B-class flare. The other newly numbered region, 2402 (N05W38, Axx/alpha) was stable and inactive. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed on available LASCO coronagraph imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares (Below R1-Minor) for the next three days (18-20 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels with a maximum of 12,191 pfu at 18/1155 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to very high levels over the next three days (18-20 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters measured by the ACE spacecraft remained enhanced due to continued effects from a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds began the period near 600 km/s, before waning over the period to mainly between 460-480 km/s. Total field strength ranged between 3 nT and 7 nT. The Bz component oscillated throughout the period with a maximum deflection of -5 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away) orientation.

Forecast: Enhanced conditions are expected to linger due to continued influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). A combination of CMEs from two filament eruptions observed from the SW quadrant of the visible Sun on 14 Aug is expected to disturb the solar wind environment on day one (18 Aug) and possibly continue into day two (19 Aug). A return to near ambient solar wind conditions is forecast for day three (20 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached an isolated period of minor storm (NOAA Scale G1) conditions between 17/1200 and 17/1500 UTC, due to CH HSS influence. Unsettled to active levels dominated the remainder of the period.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely for day one (18 Aug) under continued CH HSS influence and a combination of CMEs from two separate filament eruptions of 14 Aug. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to persist on day two (19 Aug) due to possible lingering effects from the CMEs and weakening CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (20 Aug) as CME and CH HSS effects wane.

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