[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 19 1310 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 19 1310 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2403 (S12E58, Cai/beta) exhibited growth in its leader and intermediate spots over the period and was the sole flare producer with three B-class flares, the largest being a B6.8/Sf at 19/1053 UTC. Region 2401 (S10W23, Cao/beta) showed signs of slight growth and consolidation in its leader and trailer spots, yet remained inactive throughout the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available LASCO coronagraph imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares (Below R1-Minor) for the next three days (19-21 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels with a maximum of 21,632 pfu at 18/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to very high levels over the next three days (19-21 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected waning coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence until near 18/2000 UTC when impact from a possible CME from 14 Aug caused enhancements in Bt, Bz, and wind speeds. The IMF total field gradually increased from the 3-5 nT range early to as high as 9 nT. The Bz component increased from fluctuating between +/- 4 nT early to seeing deflections as high as -8 nT. Wind speeds began the period in the 440-460 km/s range and increased to a maximum speed near 520 km/s. Wind speeds ended the period settling near 460 km/s. The phi angle remained in a mostly positive orientation during the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment measured at the ACE spacecraft is expected to continue with slightly disturbed conditions on day one (19 Aug) due to possible CME impact and waning CH HSS effects. Conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet to unsettled levels by day two (20 Aug), before becoming mostly quiet on day three (21 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the first half of the period, before increasing to active conditions for the second half.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue on day one (19 Aug), due to possible CME impact and waning CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days two and three (20 - 21 Aug) as CME and CH HSS effects diminish.

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