[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 27 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels over the period. Region 2403 (S16W50, Fki/beta-gamma) produced an M2/1B flare at 27/0544 UTC and several C-class flares. The region lost its delta configuration but is still complex and remains capable of producing higher levels of activity while undergoing slow decay. There is an unnumbered region that emerged in the southeast that has one visible spot. Further spot reports are needed to justify assigning a SWPC region number.

A type 4 radio sweep was observed between 27/0858-27/0955 UTC and was associated with low level C-class flare activity.

There was a CME off of the west limb that is first visible on coronagraph imagery at 26/2024 UTC. This CME appears to be associated with a filament eruption that occurred near S07W52 between 26/1921 - 26/2047 UTC. Further analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling are needed to determine if it has an Earthward trajectory as more imagery comes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely and a slight chance for X-class (R3, Strong or greater) on days one and two (27-28 Aug) due to the flare potential of Region 2403. Activity is expected to continue at low levels into day three (29 Aug) with a chance for M-class flares, but a diminished chance for X-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (27-28 Aug) and increase to normal to high levels on day three (29 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for all three days, but with a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm on days one and two (27-28 Aug) due to the flare potential and better Earth-aligned magnetic connection of Region 2403 as it rotates closer to the western limb. The slight chance for solar radiation storms is expected to diminish by day three (29 Aug) as Region 2403 slowly decays and its flare potential decreases.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters as measured by the ACE spacecraft remained enhanced due to the 22 Aug CME that arrived late on 25 Aug. Total field strength remained relatively steady between 10-12 nT while the Bz component was mostly southward with a maximum deviation of -14 nT. Solar wind velocities remained steady in the 350-380 km/s range. The phi angle remained predominantly positive (away) through the period but began to show some variation toward the end of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind velocities are expected to continue at enhanced levels through most of day one (27 Aug) due to lingering CME effects and the arrival of a possible co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind velocities are expected to increase as the CH HSS becomes geoeffective on days two and three (28-29 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at active to Major storm (G2) levels during the period due to the effects of the 22 Aug CME.

Forecast: Minor (G1-Minor) storm conditions are expected early on day one (27 Aug) due to lingering CME effects. Activity is expected to wane slightly throughout the day, but active levels are expected late on day one and on into day two (28 Aug) as the CIR and CH HSS interact with the Earths geomagnetic field. Conditions are expected to be unsettled on day three (29 Aug) due to continued effects from the CH HSS.

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