[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 28 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. The most complex region on the solar disk, Region 2493 (S15W61, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta), produced several C-class flares over the period. The largest was a C8/Sf at 28/0251 UTC. The region exhibited slight decay in its intermediate spots and little change in the leader and trailer over the past 24 hours. Region 2405 (S23E42, Bxo/beta) developed a few new spots but remained simple and inactive through the period.

A CME was observed off of the west limb that first became visible on coronagraph imagery at 26/2024 UTC. This CME appears to be associated with a filament eruption that occurred near S09W48 between 26/1921 - 26/2047 UTC. WSA-Enlil model analysis indicated that the CME was too far west to be geoeffective. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to see a chance for M-class flares on day one through three (28-30 Aug) and a slight chance for X-class flares over days one and two (28-29 Aug). With the continued decay of Region 2403, the likelihood of R-1 (Minor) or greater flares will gradually decrease.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 915 pfu at 27/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels on day one (28 Aug) and increase to normal to high levels on days two and three (29-30 Aug). A slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) exists on days one and two (28-29 Aug) due to flare potential from Region 2403 which is in a well connected magnetic position. The chance for an event decreases on day three (30 Aug) due to a reduction in flare potential as Region 2403 continues to show signs of decay.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were representative of a slow moving transient. Total magnetic field strength was enhanced between 10 and 14 nT. Wind velocities were variable around 340-380 km/s. After around 27/1620 UTC the phi angle transitioned from positive (away) to negative (towards). Bz was predominantly oriented in a far south configuration remained mostly between -5 nT to -10 nT for the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels through day one (28 Aug) in response to lingering CME effects and the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind velocities are expected to increase later on day one (28 Aug) and into day two (29 Aug) as the CH HSS becomes geoeffective. A gradual decrease in solar wind parameters is expected on day three (30 Aug) as CH HSS effects begin to wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm (G2-Moderate) levels during the period due to the effects of the slow-moving 22 Aug coronal mass ejection (CME).

Forecast: Minor (G1-minor) storm conditions are expected on day one (28 Aug) due to lingering CME effects and the anticipated arrival of the CIR and subsequent CH HSS. A decrease in activity is expected through day one with mostly active conditions expected on day two (29 Aug) under the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected by day three as the CH HSS stream enhancement continues to decline.

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