[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 29 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was moderate. Region 2403 (S17W77, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a pair of M-class flares, an M2/1f flare at 28/1316 UTC and an M2/1n at 28/1903 UTC. Region 2403 exhibited little change as it rotated towards the west limb. Region 2405 (S19E27, Cro/beta) grew slightly, developing a trailer spot with a rudimentary penumbra. A new region of emerging flux was observed in the NE quadrant and is being monitored for continued development. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class (R1-Minor) flares likely and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) activity on days one and two (29-30 Aug). Activity is expected to remain low with only a chance for M-class flares on day three (31 Aug) as 2403 rotates around the west limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 257 pfu observed at 28/1625 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels on day one (29 Aug) and increase to normal to high levels on days two and three (30-31 Aug). A slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) exists on days one and two (29-30 Aug) due to flare potential from Region 2403 which is in a well connected magnetic position. The chance for an event decreases on day three (31 Aug) as Region 2403 rotates around the west limb.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured by the ACE spacecraft, suggested the influence of a slow moving transient transitioning to the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The period began with mag field between 10-15 nT. Wind velocities were steady around 340 km/s but began to slow rise after 28/1400 UTC, peaking between 28/2300 and 29/0000 UTC around 450 km/s. Total field was began a gradual decline from around 14 nT at 28/2000 UTC to 8 nT by the end of the period. Phi angle was predominant negative (towards) for the entire period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels through day one (29 Aug) in response to the negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind velocities are expected to gradually decrease late on day two (30 Aug) and into day three (31 Aug) as the effects of the CH begin to subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm (G2-Moderate) levels during the period in response to the effects of the slow-moving 22 Aug coronal mass ejection (CME).

Forecast: Minor (G1-minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely early on day one (29 Aug) in response to the influence of the CH HSS. Day two (30 Aug) is expected to see mostly active conditions as the high speed stream proper will likely decrease the total field strength of the interplanetary magnetic field. Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast for day three (31 Aug) as the anticipated decrease in wind speeds from the departing coronal hole further decrease the potential magnitude of geomagnetic response to the CH HSS.

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