[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 2403 (S15W82, Dao/beta), produced the largest flare of the period, a long duration M1 at 30/0423 UTC, as it continued to rotate around the west limb. Region 2405 (S20E09, Bxo/beta) and Region 2406 (N03E22, Bxo/beta) remained relatively simple and inactive through the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to decrease over the forecast period as Region 2403 continues its transit beyond the SW limb. On day one (30 Aug), solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an isolated X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flare. Activity is expected to decrease on day two (31 Aug) to low levels with a chance for an M-class flare. A further decrease to a chance for C-class flares is expected by day three (01 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels for the forecast period (30 Aug-01 Sep). A slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) exists on day one (30 Aug) due to flare potential from Region 2403. The chance for an event decreases on days two and three (31 Aug-01 Sep) as Region 2403 rotates around the SW limb.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were enhanced by the effects of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind velocities were around 460 km/s at the beginning of the period and trended down to around 420 km/s by the end of the period as the influence from the coronal hole begins to subsides. Total field has remained steady around 5 nT while Bz component has maintained a predominantly northward direction. Phi was mostly negative (towards) over the past 24 hours.

Forecast: A gradual decline in solar wind velocity is expected on days one and two (30-31 Aug) as the influence of the coronal hole slowly wanes. Day three (01 Sep) is expected to undergo enhancements in the solar wind parameters due to a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) followed by a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through midday on day three (30 Aug-01 Sep) as CH HSS effects subside. By mid to late on day three, a SSBC followed by a CIR preceding the next CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective raising activity to unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels.

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